The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales

Published on November 6, 2025

We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the
United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how
changes in vehicle sales over time diverge across counties with differing shares of Democratic and
Republican voters. Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April
2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan
activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22% because
of substitution, and undermined California’s progress in meeting its zero-emissions vehicle target.

Read the working paper here: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34413/w34413.pdf 

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